The establishment of meteorological forecasting models for black cutworm on Batan area grassland in Qinghai

In order to prevent black cutworm damage, the influences of meteorological factors on the population of grassland black cutworm were analyzed by correlation analysis and regression analysis based on the population density of grassland black cutworm on Batan meadows in Tongde County and the ground meteorological observation data of Tongde County Meteorological Bureau in Qinghai Province during 2000-2013. During these studied 14 years, black cutworm increased with 6.81 headm-2 per year with the average absolute rate of population density of 66.07 headm-2 and the highest population density was 93.95% more than the lowest population density. There were good correlation between black cutworm population density and air temperature, precipitation, ground temperature, illumination and average wind speed. Multiple regression analysis indicated that the dominant climatic factors that affected population density of grassland black cutworm were the September precipitation last year, December average temperature, annual illumination duration and 10 cm average temperature in December, which had determined 95.02% of population density. Model test indicated that the model predictive accuracy was 96.3% which had good simulation.