Study on herders' perception of yearly precipitation patterns as a basis for their grass-animal balance decision in steppe regions of Inner Mongolia

Precipitation is a key natural factor that influences the rangeland productivity and carrying capacity in the steppe regions of Inner Mongolia. Herders are the direct decision-makers for livestock husbandry production, and their judgments about yearly precipitation patterns provide an important basis for their forage-animal balance decisions. Through the use of meteorological and statistical data, and other reference materials since the 1980s, this study explored the herders' yearly precipitation patterns in the meadow steppe, typical steppe, and desert steppe regions of Inner Mongolia. The results showed higher frequencies in the meadow and desert steppe regions in below-normal precipitation years, compared with normal years in the typical steppe regions. Overall, there were more wet years in the three regions. Herders had their own judgments of precipitation patterns and those precipitation patterns remained steady and unchanged, whereas the actual precipitation patterns changed frequently over time. Between 1980 and 1995, the herders' perceptions of precipitation patterns were always that these were dry years and below-normal years in the meadow steppe and desert regions, respectively, whereas dry years were the dominant precipitation pattern in the typical steppe region. Since 1996, the precipitation patterns have usually followed a 3~5 year period. This implies that herders have their own understanding and judgments of the yearly precipitation patterns, which they adjust according to natural, social, and economic changes. The yearly precipitation patterns provided an important natural basis for the herders' forage-animal balance decision making.