Research on the fluctuation of alfalfa prices after the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has had major impacts on the global economy and society, and the pasture industry in our country has suffered significant impacts. This research takes domestic alfalfa price, domestic fresh milk price, price growth rate of import alfalfa, alfalfa import volume, and the number of people diagnosed with COVID-19 as variables. The time of variables are based on January 2018 to June 2021. We established a VAR model of alfalfa price fluctuation, which uses the Granger causality test, impulse response analysis, and the variance decomposition process of alfalfa price to analyze the transmission process of alfalfa price changes caused by the pandemic and the degree of influence of each variable on the alfalfa price. The conclusions are as follows: first, in the short-term, alfalfa price is significantly affected by the demand; second, the impact of the pandemic on the price of alfalfa is not major, but increases the price of alfalfa by affecting the price of fresh milk; in the long-term, alfalfa price is greatly affected by the import volume of alfalfa.