Analysis of the spatiotemporal effects and driving factors of land use carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

The Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) is a region in China with a vibrant economy, a high level of openness, and a dense population. Given the prominence of this region, we explore the spatial and temporal evolution patterns and drivers of regional land use carbon emissions which are essential for regional carbon emission management and low-carbon territorial spatial planning system construction. This study constructs a land use carbon emission estimation model for the YREB based on land use and energy consumption data over seven periods- between 1990 and 2018, systematically analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of land use carbon emissions in the YREB with the help of a spatial autocorrelation model, and explores the driving factors of land use carbon emissions in the YREB and different regions within it using a combination of correlation analysis and geodetectors. The results reveal the following. First, land use carbon emissions in the YREB continued to grow during 1990－2018, but the growth trend tended to slow down in the latter part of the study. The average land use carbon emissions per capita in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River are much higher than those in the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River, but the land use carbon emissions per unit Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are lower than those in the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Second, the distribution pattern of land use carbon emissions in the YREB is high in the east and low in the west, with the high-value areas mainly concentrated in the vicinity of the Yangtze River Delta city cluster and the low-value areas mainly distributed in the western Hengduan Mountains and the western Sichuan Plateau. Lastly, economic development is the most crucial driver of spatial differentiation of land use carbon emissions in the YREB. Environmental regulation, land use, human activities, economic development, and technological innovation interactively drive the spatial variation of land use carbon emissions in the YREB. The significant differences in human activities, economic development, and technological innovation are the main reasons for the different explanatory strengths of each driver of land use carbon emissions in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.