The grassland ecological compensation standard based on Gray Prediction (GM) Model——Axi Township Ruoergai County

In this paper, gray forecast model (GM) was used to predict net income of grassland in Axi Township, Ruoergai County. The actual economic loss of herdsman were estimated based on the difference between pure profit prediction and actual net income. According to welfare economics Pareto optimal, the ecological compensation standard of herdsmen was determined without reduction of herdsman income level. The results showed that the level of grey prediction model (GM ) is first which is very precise in short period. The prediction of 2012 Axi Township grassland net income was 362.89 CNY·ha-1 and the actual net income is -23.5 CNY·ha-1. During grassland ecological construction process, the compensation standard was estimated at 386.39 CNY·ha-1.