A forecast model for the best prevention period of first generation larvae of Loxostege sticticalis

Studying the relationship between occurrence regularity of various stages of the meadow moth (Loxostege sticticalis) and meteorological factors is a good way to prevent the meadow moth effectively and alleviate possible disaster losses. Based on the correlation analysis between spawning and hatching time of overwintering generation of adults, development times of 1 to 3age larvae, the duration from the first day of peak catch to 3age larvae and meteorological factors and comparison analysis of these factors at typical years, we developed a forecast model on the duration from the first day of peak catch to 3age larvae by using multiple linear regression of optimal subset. According to the duration from the first day of peak catch to 3age larvae, the study determined the optimal controlling period of first generation larvae of the meadow moth. Average errors between simulated and observed values were about 1.2 days. These results are of importance to direct farmers to prevent the meadow moth, improve control effect and alleviate losses as much as possible.